Science has a special issue this month on forecasting political behavior, which included an essay by Cederman and Weidmann in which they discuss the limitations of current conflict forecasting models, as well as the areas where they’re better than many people, including political science scholars, think they are.
It’s been a very forecast-y week. Between (finally) reading Phil Tetlock’s excellent Expert Political Judgement, going to a half dozen panels at ISA on forecasting and event data, and today’s NPR story about the Good Judgement Project, I’ve been thinking a lot about how to make political forecasts and how we know when they’re good.