The Good Judgement Project and Bayes’ Calculator

It’s been a very forecast-y week. Between (finally) reading Phil Tetlock’s excellent Expert Political Judgement, going to a half dozen panels at ISA on forecasting and event data, and today’s NPR story about the Good Judgement Project, I’ve been thinking a lot about how to make political forecasts and how we know when they’re good. I wanted to share one of the tools I’ve been using for forecasting and calculating subjective probabilities.

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The Good Judgement Project and Bayes’ Calculator